EXP-000002
Stop-loss share denominator — data-integrity check
假设
An observed stop-loss share above 100% indicates the denominator excludes some closed trades.
受控更改
Closed-trade count switched from wins+losses to all closed trades including break-even; win/loss rates kept on decided trades only.
数据集与条件
Extracted deal lists, all 14 systems.
更改前 / 更改后
更改前
- SUPREMACY stop-loss share
- 100.05%
更改后
- After including 9 break-even trades in the denominator
- 100.00%
验证
样本外、步进、蒙特卡洛与前向结果仅在数据存在时显示。本条目不存在这些数据。
决定
✓采纳
Share can no longer exceed 100%; extracted totals now match each report header exactly.
AI 参与
- 模型
- Claude (Anthropic)
- AI 做了什么
- Traced the >100% share to break-even trades missing from the denominator and drafted the fix; totals were re-verified against every report header.
- 人工审核
- ✓ 已经人工审核并批准
AI 辅助的条目仅在人工审核后发布;未经审核的 AI 生成条目会被构建流程扣留。AI 不预测市场,也没有任何条目作此宣称。
回测的改进不代表未来的改进。实验越多,碰巧成功的概率越高——本日志的存在部分正是为了让多重检验风险保持可见。